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We track the data that actually matters — for a country, a city, a business, or a person — and only publish a forecast once we can defend it. Every call is dated, public, and checked against what actually happened.
Live prediction — #1
ConfirmedUK monthly GDP · July 2026
+0.3%–+0.4%m/m
Central estimate: ~+0.35%Resolved: 11 Sept 2026, 7am (ONS)
Outcome: +0.4% m/m (ONS, 11 Sept 2026)
Indicators used →Hide indicators ↑
| Indicator | Reading | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Flash composite PMI (July) | 52.1, up from 49.3 | ↑ |
| Retail sales (July) | −0.5% m/m | ↓ |
| Energy price cap | +13% from 1 July | ↓ |
| GfK consumer confidence (July) | +6pts, biggest jump since Nov 2023 | ↑ |
| Labour market | Unemployment flat at 4.9% | → |
Why this call →Hide reasoning ↑
Retail sales dipped, but that reads as payback from a May/June promotional pull-forward rather than new weakness. No analyst consensus was published for this release yet; professional consensus historically misses by ~0.2pp either way.
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