UK CPI inflation, August 2026

2.8% to 3.0% y/y (central ~2.9%)

Headline CPI rose from a 15-month low of 2.6% (June) to 2.9% (July), exactly matching consensus. Underlying pressure is actually easing, not building: core CPI held flat at 2.6% y/y and services inflation cooled to 3.4% from 3.6%. The swing factor is fuel -- pump prices rose through early August then eased again by mid-month, a choppier picture than Julys clean base-effect-driven jump. The Bank of Englands own guidance is that inflation stays just under 3% for most of 2026, with the acceleration toward a ~3.25% Q4 peak not expected yet. Call: roughly flat with July, not a repeat of June-to-Julys full 0.3pp jump.