AllForecasts
AllForecasts Research Note
United Kingdom

UK GDP quarterly, Q2 2026

Published: 14 Aug 2026, 09:00Status: PendingResolves by: 30 Sept 2026
The call

+0.3% to +0.5% q/q (central ~+0.4%)

Why

Q1 2026 grew +0.6% q/q. The Q2 monthly path was uneven: April fell -0.1% (revised), May was flat at 0% (revised down from +0.1%), June rebounded +0.3% on services strength. ONSs own rolling comparison -- growth in the three months to June 2026 vs the three months to March 2026 -- already came in at +0.4%, down from +0.6% for the three months to May, and that comparison window is methodologically almost identical to the quarterly release itself. Consistent with the IMFs 1.0% full-year 2026 growth forecast, which implies a slower pace than Q1 across the rest of the year.

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