UK monthly GDP, July 2026

+0.3% to +0.4% m/m

Cross-checked against 5 indicators: flash composite PMI up sharply to 52.1 (bullish); retail sales -0.5% m/m, read as payback from May/June promo pull-forward rather than new weakness (bearish but discounted); energy price cap +13% from 1 July (genuine headwind); GfK consumer confidence +6pts, biggest jump since Nov 2023, rising despite the energy shock (bullish); unemployment flat at 4.9%, claimant count fell 2nd straight month (neutral). No analyst consensus was publicly available at time of writing; professional consensus historically misses by ~0.2pp.